22. 04. 2025
AUTHOR: Linda Kalcher and Aymeric Kouam
Ahead of the international summit on energy security, co-hosted by the United Kingdom and the International Energy Agency, we highlight the EU’s outdated energy security concept.
The rapidly evolving geopolitical context has put the European Union (EU) into a corner with the back against the wall. A scenario is unfolding with the EU facing two extreme options for the coming years: First, the bid for a “deal” to avoid tariffs by buying more Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) from the US, whose current administration proves unreliable. Second, the idea of re-opening Nord Stream pipelines and buying even more gas from Russia as part of a potential “peace deal” on Ukraine, instead of phasing it out by 2027.
The EU is caught between a rock and a hard place due to its fossil fuel use and energy security concept that is too centred around supply. Instead, the EU can increase its energy security by accelerating its transition to climate neutrality and phasing out fossil fuels, which also brings positive impacts through a “security dividend”.
Reduce dependence instead of substitution or diversification of gas deals
This is the right moment for the EU to draw the line and redefine its energy security concept. We can no longer afford the principle of “cheap gas at all costs”. The geopolitical, economic and social costs of fossil fuels are much higher than the investments in the transition. The recent Commission suggestions of investing in LNG infrastructure to bring energy prices down are in vain.
EU LNG demand hit a peak in 2023 and is expected to decrease in the following years, according to multiple gas demand scenarios. The EU is only facing a shortage for the next 2-3 years, with LNG long-term contracts supplies already agreed. The expected gas demand reduction in the EU will result in a LNG over-contracted situation as of 2027.
A new energy security concept is only fit for the 21st century if it focuses on fossil-free energy, affordability, electrification, energy efficiency, cooperation and physical security of infrastructure. Indeed, half of the EU’s economy can be electrified by 2040, with zero-emission electricity, reducing the overall gas consumption for electricity generation, industry and buildings. At the same time, gas could be entirely phased out from the power mix by 2037.
The European Commission has an opportunity to enshrine these policy milestones and a new energy security concept in the upcoming publications:
- The Roadmap to phase out Russian fuels (expected 6 May) can be the beginning of an overall fossil fuel phase-out strategy.
- The Industrial Decarbonisation Accelerator Act can boost electrification and net-zero manufacturing.
- The Electrification Plan can put this new energy security concept at the heart of Europe’s industrial future through concrete targets and measures.
Accelerating the energy transition is the best way
This week’s energy security summit is the right moment to align internationally on such a new concept and discuss how to accelerate the global energy transition accordingly. The supply and price shocks have affected the EU and the UK due to the Russian war and strong motivations to transition away from fossil fuels. Within the EU, the Polish presidency is the right champion for the debate and seeks to adopt conclusions on energy security at the June Energy Council. They see five key considerations for a new EU energy security definition:
- physical protection of energy infrastructure to better mitigate the risk of potential cybersecurity threats,
- Supply security by ending Russian energy imports by 2027,
- Sustainable energy concerns, as fossil-free electricity is more resilient,
- Ensuring affordability to bring energy prices down so all households have access to power,
- European cooperation and solidarity are shown in the crisis Ukraine is facing.
The upcoming Commission publications and June Council are the right moments to agree on and implement a new definition of energy security.
