Following Russia's war of aggression on Ukraine and the weaponisation of energy, the European Union (EU) launched REPowerEU in 2022, a plan to phase out Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027. The plan aims to save energy, diversify energy supplies, and produce clean energy. It is part of an effort to protect EU citizens and businesses from high energy costs and to secure affordable energy supply.

Back then, the situation was a wake-up call for the EU to quickly cut its dependency on Russian fossil fuel imports. Russia's weaponisation of energy resulted in a crisis, with high energy prices and inflation, driven by fossil fuel imports, affecting industries and households.

Looking at Russian fossil fuels imports in the EU from 2022 to 2023, it went from 21% to 4% share of oil and petroleum products, 24% to 14% share of natural gas and 23% to 1% of solid fossil fuels in, thanks to EU sanctions on oil and coal from Russia, which is encouraging. However, when we look closely, the Russian gas imports registered a 19% year-on-year increase in 2024 compared to 2023, bringing concerns about the EU's efforts and willingness to decouple from Russian energies successfully. While geopolitical tensions rise, the Russian fossil fuel phase-out Roadmap to be published by the European Commission becomes a security imperative for the EU. Even if peace talks were achieved between Russia and Ukraine, returning to pre-war energy relations with Russia would be a strategic mistake. Indeed, while Russian gas is often perceived as cheap, this ignores hidden costs such as geopolitical instability, price manipulation, supply cut threats and energy blackmail. The Roadmap could complement REPowerEU with concrete actions to decouple from Russia’s energies, but it could also engage the EU in a well-planned phase-out of gas.

The imperative need to decouple our energy supply from Russia

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the EU spent more than €206 billion on Russian fossil fuel supplies, with 48% on gas, inadvertently financing the war while exposing itself to energy security risks and high energy prices. Although the EU has significantly cut its direct reliance on Russian oil and coal, it still imported a considerable amount of Russian gas in 2024  – pipeline gas and Liquefied Natural Gas. This dependence has led to higher energy prices, threatening the EU energy security and demonstrating the risk of relying on an unreliable supplier. Reopening gas routes and opening Nord Stream 2 would increase the EU’s exposure to geopolitical pressure and hinder its transition to clean energy sources.

Figure 1: EU spending on Russian fossil fuels since 24 February 2025.  Source: CREA, 24 March 2025

 

Beyond direct gas imports, Russian fertilisers – a gas by-product – imports in the EU rose by 33% in 2024, reaching 6.2 million metric tonnes worth over €2.2 billion and representing 25% of EU imports. This means the EU is importing Russian gas also in the form of fertilisers.

Achieving a strategic economy will require reducing reliance on Russian energy in all its forms. The EU can propose binding quotas for maximum import volumes from Russia, which will be evolutive until a total phase-out from Russian fossil fuels in 2027. Additional sanctions could apply to imported gas by-products to ensure there is no resource reshuffling in Russia to continue exporting its gas to the EU. At the same time, the EU demand for fossil fuels could diminish by 80% through the deployment of renewables, efficiency measures and electrification by 2040, compared to 1990 levels.

An opportunity to strengthen energy security in general

Phasing out Russian gas is an opportunity for the EU to strengthen and adapt its energy security strategy. Energy security cannot be about replacing one supplier with another, meaning that  phase out from Russian gas dependence should not lead to a US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) overdependence. Instead, the Roadmap can be the first step to a well-planned and managed gas phase-out across the EU.

To effectively phase out gas, the EU can continue accelerating efforts towards more renewable energy, electrification, energy efficiency and grid modernization and improvements. For instance, increase the economy electrification rate from 21.3% to 32% by 2030 and 50% by 2040, and annually install at least 70 GW of new wind and solar capacity until 2040 to reduce energy prices for households and businesses, reinforce energy security and enhance economic prosperity. It has been captured in the recent Clean Industrial Deal and Action Plan for Affordable Energy, and it could help save up to €130 billion per year on fossil fuel imports by 2030.

 

Cover photo: AP Photo/Dmitry Lovetsky, File
Design by SLIK