Suggestions for COP31 priorities for the European Union

COP31 takes place amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, aggravated by the war in the Middle East, which are driving inflation and impacting prices and supplies for both energy and food. At a time of heightened uncertainty and more frequent extreme weather events, there is an opportunity to match the EU’s domestic priorities and what COP31 could deliver. Concretely: greater security by accelerating the global clean energy transition; diversification and deepening of partnerships based on projects and investments; technical and financial re-engagement on issues around adaptation and protection from climate impacts; and a reaffirmation of international law and science-based policy-making. 

Together, these outcomes for a ‘successful COP’ would not only advance global climate action but also enhance the resilience of the EU’s supply chains through cleantech cooperation, create opportunities for European businesses and strengthen the EU's position as a trusted global partner. In an increasingly fragmented geopolitical environment, climate diplomacy has become an important instrument for advancing economic security, industrial competitiveness and international influence. It is therefore imperative to set international priorities for engagement, cooperation, and coalition-building in line with these objectives. 

The following suggestions for objectives can inform the ministerial debate at the Informal Environment Council.

• Accelerate Implementation of the Paris Agreement

COP31 can demonstrate clear progress in implementing the Paris Agreement across mitigation, adaptation and finance. For the EU, this is essential not only for achieving its climate objectives but also for preserving confidence in the rules-based international system. 

On mitigation, the EU can use its diplomatic and cooperation instruments to encourage the submission of the remaining Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and advance work on the accountability of the Action Agenda.

On adaptation, countries should make meaningful progress in operationalising the Global Goal on Adaptation through the further development of robust and practical adaptation indicators. Reaffirming the EU’s commitment to deliver its share of the collective goal to triple adaptation finance would help rebuild trust with developing country partners. 

Finance remains the critical enabler of implementation. COP31 provides an opportunity to demonstrate progress in expanding the overall sources of finance, particularly by working with the private sector and development banks to reduce the costs of capital for investments (e.g. through guarantees) while addressing legitimate concerns regarding access to finance for developing countries. Designing robust investment plans, access to finance, debt sustainability, reducing the cost of capital, blended finance, guarantees and the increased provision of equity are of critical importance for most countries. This is an area in which the EU has a lot to contribute. 

• Showcase that countries advance the clean energy transition through electrification

A successful COP31 will demonstrate that an overwhelming majority [1] of countries are aligned with the EU's strategic direction on the global energy transition. The transition away from fossil fuels (TAFF) and the acceleration of electrification would need to be recognised as delivering not only climate benefits at a time of proven overshoot of the 1.5°C goal but also greater energy security, affordability, a just transition and economic competitiveness.

Countries across regions are increasingly positioning themselves to benefit from growing markets for renewable energy, clean technologies, sustainable industry and electrified transport. This creates an opportunity for the EU and its partners to invest in this space at a high level to showcase the tangible benefits of the transition, and that the implementation of paragraph 28 of the COP28 cover decision is progressing, if not accelerating. 

The development of credible TAFF roadmaps, new country platforms, the delivery of Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) and national pathways or policies in line with the Global Methane Pledge could demonstrate that international cooperation can deliver concrete results beyond negotiated texts. Greater global investment in renewable energy, grids, clean technologies and electrification creates expanding markets for European industries and reinforces the EU's industrial competitiveness. 

• Build a strong coalition that shapes the second Global Stocktake (GST2)

Success at COP31 could also be measured by the EU's ability to help build a broad international coalition that shapes the objectives of the GST2 in a way that preserves a credible pathway for bringing the world back on track to keeping 1.5°C within reach. By working with like-minded partners, including AOSIS, LDCs, Umbrella and BASIC (if they are coherent with their political posturing), the EU can ensure that the Global Stocktake remains the strategic framework for increasing ambition and accelerating implementation based on science. Keeping scientific evidence and timely inputs from the IPCC at the centre of policymaking strengthens the credibility of international agreements, provides certainty for investors and businesses, and helps ensure that future decisions remain grounded in objective evidence rather than short-term political considerations.

The selection of co-facilitators and input for GST2 could be a key to success at COP31.

[1]  These countries include key negotiation groups: AOSIS, LDC, many African countries, Umbrella and the BASIC group which could be the EU’s key partner on this issue.