11. 06. 2026
AUTHOR: Strategic Perspectives
Brussels, 11 June 2026—Europe can cut 70% of its gas demand by 2040 through electrification alone, according to new data from Strategic Perspectives. Additional energy efficiency measures can further make gas play a marginal role.
100 days into the war in Iran, the updated EU Gas Insight tool released today reveals that electrification is the primary engine of European energy independence. The analysis shows that by 2040, electrification of heating, transport, and industry could reduce the share of gas to just 7% of total energy consumption. When paired with energy efficiency measures, the role of gas becomes marginal, accounting for as little as 5% of the final energy balance.
Electrification alone can put the EU on a pathway to energy independence by cutting oil and gas imports by two-thirds. It removes the need for the EU to buy liquefied natural gas (LNG) on global markets, reducing the exposure of households and companies to volatile prices. This structural pivot would allow the European Union to meet its remaining gas demand solely through domestic production and imports from Norway and the UK in 2040. It is a necessary step before a complete gas phase-out.
The analysis forecasts the end of the fossil fuel era: oil and gas, which made up 56% of the energy mix in 2025, are projected to plummet to 21% by 2040.
As the European Commission prepares its Electrification Action Plan and Energy Security Framework, including an “ambitious electrification target”, these figures provide the roadmap for trading geopolitical vulnerability for domestic security.
Director Neil Makaroff analysed: “Electrification is as strategic as defence for Europeans’ security. In a world where risks of energy supply disruptions and volatile gas and oil prices are the new normal, electrifying half of the economy by 2040 is the prime driver for building Europe’s energy independence.
If the Commission and governments want to reduce dependencies and shield their citizens and businesses from future crises, boosting electrification is a no-brainer. The next step for decision-makers: set a strong, solid EU target and direct public spending and taxation to support electrification, where they generate the greatest strategic return.”
Energy Analyst Marin Gillot added: “The era of cheap, predictable and geopolitically neutral fossil fuel imports is over. Europe’s dependence on gas continues to tie its economic stability to volatile global energy markets and geopolitical developments far beyond its control. But electrification can change that equation. By 2040, electrifying half of the EU economy could reduce gas demand by 70%, relegating gas to a marginal role in final energy consumption. For the first time, Europe could meet its remaining gas needs through domestic production and imports from Norway and the UK alone – representing a major upgrade in the continent’s energy security.”
Media contact: Mirta Baselovic
