High expectations for the first 100 days of the new Commission

02. 12. 2024
AUTHOR: Neil Makaroff, Sara Benedetti Michelangeli & Aymeric Kouam

The von der Leyen II Commission took office on 1 December. The Clean Industrial Deal, promised by President von der Leyen for the first 100 days, is an opportunity to set out how the EU can support its industry, maintain its position in the net-zero industrial race and provide a united response to geopolitical turbulence. The European economy is under high pressure: Beijing’s strategy to become the global cleantech monopoly is putting Europe’s industrial base at risk. This pressure will increase as Chinese products will be re-routed to the European market if the Trump administration imposes a 60% tariff. In addition, the EU’s high dependence on imported gas, oil and coal maintains businesses and households vulnerable to international energy markets’ volatility and undermines its energy security. In fact, as a result, gas prices in the EU are three to five times higher than those in the US. As its dependence on US Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) increases, the EU exposes itself to US policy decisions on trade. In the first half of 2024, 47% of the EU’s LNG imports were from the US, 18.7% from Russia.

In its first 100 days, the new Commission can shape Europe’s response to those challenges through a new Competitiveness Compass, outlined by the President von der Leyen. Stéphane Séjourné, in collaboration with Teresa Ribera, is responsible for designing a robust Clean Industrial Deal that backs a 90% climate target by 2040.

Support the European industry and unlock strategic investments 

The business case for net-zero manufacturing in Europe is decreasing quickly due to high energy prices and the slowdown of demand for EVs and heat pumps for instance. Providing reassurances that the EU continues its net-zero transition and will support strategic industries such as battery, wind turbine, steel manufacturers and automotive is key. During the 100 first days, the new Commission can launch some key initiative that can favor Europe-made technologies and consolidate the value chains to face the competitiveness crisis as central parts of the Clean Industrial Deal: 

  • The revision of public procurement rules can be a key file to better support EU producers. It could set sustainability, carbon footprint and circularity standards to stimulate innovation and help European companies to compete with Chinese ones on another level than only cost, closing the innovation and competitiveness gaps. One step further would be to implement a net-zero ‘EU-value-chain bonus’, rewarding zero-emission products that have low emissions and a minimum number of manufacturing steps within the EU. 
  • The Industrial Accelerator Decarbonisation Act can define quotas for growing green products in lead markets to support the decarbonisation of the heavy industry (e.g. quotas of green steel in the automotive or the wind industries). As the decarbonisation of the heavy industry is investment-intensive, securing the demand is key to support producers. 
  • A new Competitiveness Fund that unlocks finance for strategic sectors is vital as NextGenerationEU expires at the end 2026, leaving the EU with the risk of underinvestment. Growing the cleantech industry to implement the Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA) and supporting the decarbonisation of the energy-intensive industries requires at least €668 billion by 2040. Investing in the European Single Market is a condition to increase its resilience while delivering a 90% climate target. Some voices like the Danish Prime Minister have understood that and now support the idea of a joint EU borrowing for competitiveness. 
Designing a new energy security strategy based on the decarbonisation

The new Energy and Housing Commissioner, Dan Jørgensen, has outlined a comprehensive approach to securing clean, affordable energy, as part of his priorities. Key initiatives include an Electrification Plan and a roadmap towards ending Russian energy imports within the first 100 days, to make energy more accessible and cost-effective:

  • A new roadmap to phase out Russian gas entering the EU market, with a particular attention on LNG imports, will be key to operationalise the 2022’s agreement to cease all imports of Russian energy before 2027. 
  • An Electrification Plan with well-defined objectives can be key to the EU’s energy independence. The plan can set a trajectory to double  the electrification of the economy by 2040, and include a goal to achieve fully decarbonized power generation by 2037, with renewable energy accounting for 80% of the mix as well as sectoral electrification goals for the industry and heating sectors. 
Reforming the EU energy diplomacy and partnerships 

With President Trump back in power, it is time for the EU to take no-regret actions on geoeconomics as well as energy relations and enhance its position as a multilateral player. The Clean Trade and Investment Partnerships are key for the EU to accelerate the global energy transition, secure supplies, catalyse financial flows and create a mutually beneficial partnership model for the EU and its partners as analysed in our report.  Ursula von der Leyen announced the Global Energy Transition Forum and co-launched the Campaign on Renewable Energy for Africa with the South African President Ramaphosa at the Brazilian G20, which are good building blocks to strengthen cooperation with Africa. A new finance goal has been agreed at COP29 in Baku that covers mobilising$300 billion and reaching $1.3 trillion of investments by 2035. The EU can make these pledges credible by: 

Key dates
  • 1 December: the new European Commission is in place. 
  • 19-20 December: the European Council is an opportunity for Heads of State and government to adopt a meaningful and substantial Competitiveness Deal package that responds to the scale and urgency of the competitiveness threat. 
  • 1 January 2025: the Polish Presidency of the Council of the EU starts. 
  • By the end of February 2025: the European Commission publishes the Clean Industrial Deal and its first initiatives. This could include the Competitiveness Fund, the Electrification plan, the Circular Economy Act and the Industrial Decarbonisation Accelerator Act for instance.
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