28. 04. 2025
AUTHOR: Strategic Perspectives
The EU Gas Insight shows the European Union (EU) could effectively phase out Russian gas imports in 2027, without falling into an overdependence on US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) by accelerating the energy transition. The EU Gas Insight, Strategic Perspectives’ interactive tool providing clear data and analysis of the EU’s gas supply and demand, comes a week before the European Commission's release of the REPowerEU Roadmap for ending Russian fossil fuel imports.
Explore the interactive tool on our website here.
The EU Gas Insight visualises for the first time that:
- A complete phase-out of Russian gas imports by 2027 is achievable by accelerating the pace of the net-zero transition in the EU. This is expected to lead to a sufficient gas demand reduction to avoid an increased dependence on US LNG imports. As a result, the EU will be in an LNG over-contracted situation from 2027 onwards.
- The EU remains heavily dependent on gas imports, also from unreliable partners. In 2024, 90% of the EU’s gas supply came from outside the Union, with LNG imports now accounting for 38%.
- Russian gas imports fell from 45% of the EU’s gas supply in 2021 to below 18% in 2024 – both pipeline gas and LNG. Still a fifth of the EU LNG imports comes from Russia, with France, Spain, and Belgium being the main EU importers.
- The increased LNG reliance poses economic and security challenges as it exposes the EU to global market dynamics and leaves the EU on the weak side of any energy bargain from the Trump administration. In 2024, 45% of LNG imported in the EU came from the US.
The REPowerEU Roadmap can be the beginning of an overall gas phase-out strategy. The EU can substantially decrease its reliance on imported gas through strong electrification measures and accelerated deployment of renewable energy sources.
Energy Analyst Aymeric Kouam commented: “In the current geopolitical landscape, the EU's fossil fuel dependence is becoming a vulnerability. A fit for the 21st century energy security strategy can not be about stockpiling gas or finding new suppliers anymore, at the risk of over-dependency, as we are seeing with the US LNG. The indicators of a true energy security can be anchored in renewable energy capacity, the electrification of the economy and a more integrated energy system, which will then lead to affordable energy for European businesses and households.”
Executive Director Linda Kalcher added: “Replacing Russian gas with American LNG is a geopolitical gamble and thus worsens the EU’s energy security. The billions of Euros wasted every year on gas imports are better spent on the European economy in ways that lower gas needs: boosting electrification, insulating houses and addressing energy poverty.”
Director Neil Makaroff analysed: “Maintaining the pace of the net-zero transition is a better independence strategy than returning to pre-war energy relations with the Kremlin or importing more liquefied natural gas from the Trump administration. Ending Russian gas imports by 2027 is not only feasible, it can be the first piece of a new energy security architecture built on Europe-made clean energies.”
Media contact:
Mirta Baselovic, Communications Officer
mirta.baselovic@strategicperspectives.eu | +32 471 89 08 96
