EU elections: moving from divisive campaigns to a coalition that works for Europe

The first exit polls released after 23:00 CEST on Sunday 9 June 2024 show gains for the centre-right and far right parties. However, they don’t have enough seats and convergences to be able to form a stable ruling coalition in the European Parliament. As the seat allocation will become clear, the focus shifts on negotiations over top jobs, a comfortable majority for the incoming Commission President and priorities for the next five years.

Executive Director Linda Kalcher comments:

"This vote hasn’t been a tectonic shift to the far right. The far right made clear gains, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into more power for the next five years, as most of them will not be palatable partners for the centre-right EPP. The EPP’s main task will be to make industry competitive again - the threat from China and the United States is not going away. Now all eyes will be on the EPP leaders to create a coalition that makes it happen."

Based on the exit polls, a pro-European majority is reachable on the need to strengthen economic security and cohesion through a continued decarbonisation agenda. The EPP, the S&D, Renew and the Greens can agree on a European Industrial Strategy that delivers on climate goals, reindustrialise the economy with good manufacturing jobs and reduce our import dependencies.

Director Neil Makaroff emphasises:

"Despite important gains, far-right parties don’t have a majority without EPP to dismantle the European Green Deal. The responsibility is on other political forces to form a new and stable coalition that addresses the concerns of Europeans: the cost of living and energy price crisis, the risk of desindustrialisation and rising inequalities. Continuing the net-zero transition agenda in this mandate is a strategic choice to reposition the EU on the map of industrial powers, create green jobs in the emerging net-zero industries, and reduce energy bills. Such a plan could cement a coalition between the EPP, Socialists and Democrats, Renew and the Greens."

The upcoming negotiations to form a majority in the European Parliament to form and to reach agreement in the European Council on the Strategic Agenda cannot ignore the key challenges the European Union is facing: 

• It bears the high geopolitical and economic cost of being dependent on gas, oil and coal imports. 
• It is lagging behind in the global net-zero industrial race led by China and challenged by the US. 
• It still faces the risk of a two-speed Europe as some Member States do not have enough fiscal capacities to deploy the transition and attract net-zero manufacturing. 
• The transition is not seen as affordable for households, especially in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis. More attention on the social dimension will be needed.