01. 09. 2026
AUTHOR: Marin Gillot
The European Union (EU) is undergoing a paradigm shift in its approach to energy security. For decades, it has sought to secure imported oil and gas by diversifying suppliers and expanding infrastructure. However, the energy crises of 2022 and 2026 have demonstrated the limits of this approach. Diversification can change the source of the dependence, but it does not eliminate exposure to geopolitical shocks and volatile global prices. Against this backdrop, electrification offers a structural alternative. It replaces imported fossil fuels with electricity produced from domestic, zero-emission sources. The Electrification Action Plan, published by the European Commission on 17 July, therefore constitutes an important first step towards making electrification the organising principle of Europe’s energy system. Next comes the translation of this direction into a coherent energy security architecture for the EU.
Strategic Perspectives’ analysis shows that electrifying 50% of the EU economy by 2040 could reduce its dependence on imported oil, gas and coal by up to two-thirds. Electrification can therefore be the foundation of Europe’s future energy security.
Electrification Action Plan: a crucial first signal towards energy independence
After a decade in which electricity’s share of final energy consumption stagnated at around 23%, the Commission has set an ambition to double the electrification rate and reach 46% by 2040. This sends a clear signal that electricity will progressively replace imported fossil fuels across transport, buildings and industry. According to the Commission, reaching this level could reduce the EU’s fossil fuel import bill by €260 billion annually by 2040. It would also create demand for heat pumps, electric vehicles, batteries, grids, and industrial electrical equipment, strengthening the case for investment in European net-zero value chains. Every single point of electrification is an energy security gain. Although the EU has the potential to secure 50% electrification, a 46% target enshrined in law would be a powerful first step. However, while it offers a strong direction, the Action Plan does not yet provide a clear destination investors can rely on. The 46% electrification rate remains indicative, without binding national pathways or clear accountability mechanisms, which gives little incentive to the market and governments. Additionally, many measures presented depend on future guidance or decisions by Member States. While energy security sits at the heart of the plan’s rationale, it is therefore still to be translated into a legal architecture that makes the reduction of oil and gas dependence a reality by 2040. Else, electrification risks remaining vulnerable to fragmented implementation and changing political priorities.
Beyond the headline target, the Action Plan also recognises that the price difference between electricity and fossil fuels is partly the result of policy choices, and that narrowing it will be essential to boosting electrification. Electricity taxes and levies remain, on average, roughly twice as high as those applied to gas across Member States. This disincentivises households from installing heat pumps, drivers from switching to electric vehicles, and industries from electrifying their processes. By proposing reforms to energy taxation and network charges, alongside measures addressing fossil fuel subsidies and upfront investment costs, the Commission is tackling one of the EU’s key energy inconsistencies and ensuring that imported energy is not taxed lower than locally produced electricity. National governments could take this opportunity to support electrification in all sectors, like Denmark, Belgium, and the Netherlands did with their respective fiscal reforms.
Building a post-2030 energy architecture
The Commission’s autumn agenda offers an opportunity to complete this architecture. A binding 46% electrification target can be anchored in the upcoming Energy Security Framework. It would ensure that an electrification pathway sits at the centre of the EU’s future energy security architecture and that oil and gas infrastructure is calibrated to reflect a structural reduction of demand. Supported by national pathways and an intermediate milestone for 2035, it would provide a common direction for investment while allowing Member States flexibility over delivery across transport, buildings and industry. The revision of the Governance regulation could then set a simplified framework on how Member States include electrification in their National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) and ensure adequacy with other policies, including taxation and the phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies.
This architecture can build on the EU’s existing energy legislation rather than reopen and revise it. The Renewable Energy Directive (RED) and Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) already provide the regulatory certainty needed to deploy renewable energy at the right pace and scale and improve efficiency. National implementation is key, especially to increase renewables deployment through faster permitting. As such, reopening them would create uncertainty and complexity without tackling the main post-2030 challenge: electrification to replace imported oil and gas. On the contrary, preserving both directives can help keep these foundations stable, while the Energy Security Framework and Governance Regulation organise the next phase of the EU transition around a simple electrification target and an indicative benchmark on zero-emission electricity capacity installation per year.
Finally, the framework can recognise grids, storage and flexibility as core security infrastructure. A more electrified economy needs not only additional clean power, but also the capacity to move, store and use it efficiently. Accelerated grid investment, anticipatory planning and a battery storage benchmark aligned with the EU’s 200-gigawatt ambition for 2030 would help integrate new demand and reduce reliance on fossil fuel backup generation. By anchoring electrification in the Energy Security Framework, preserving the existing acquis and supporting the infrastructure required for delivery, the EU can turn the Action Plan’s indicative ambition into a robust energy security architecture for post-2030.
Photo credit: European Union , 2026
