10. 11. 2025
AUTHOR: Anne-Sophie Cerisola
In his opening speech at the Belém Leaders Summit, President Lula announced that COP30 would be a “moment of truth”: truth on facts, science, and actions. The UN Secretary-General responded to this call moments later when he said that “the hard truth is that we have failed to ensure we remain below 1.5 degrees”. Scientists tell us that the 1.5°C temperature goal agreed at COP21 in Paris will be overshot, while the just-published UN Emissions Gap Report warns that the global mean temperature would be heading towards 2.8°C this century if only current policies are fulfilled.
Both Lula and Guterres obviously also had in mind the merchants of doubt and agents of disorder currently attacking multilateralism and cooperation. This is why they did not stop at doom and gloom laments; they also celebrated all the work done in the past 10 years since Paris and called for more “implementation, implementation, implementation”. COPs 22 to 29 have all clarified, organised and prioritised the concrete actions needed from governments, cities, regions, businesses to accelerate, scale up or jump start climate action: from the launch of the loss and damage response fund to universal early warning systems by 2027, to doubling adaptation finance by 2025 and transitioning away from fossil fuels as soon and equitably as possible. The global transition launched with the Paris Agreement is indeed underway, powered by massive investments in renewable energy and clean industries, a feat that needs to be expanded to the countries and communities still excluded from this great transformation.
In short, COP30 can be both a moment of “truth” and a mirror held up to the successes and challenges of present and future “implementation”.
Honouring the Brazilian diplomacy’s reputation for creativity and inventiveness, the COP30 President made the unusual choice to publish 10 letters in the lead-up to the COP, each detailing both his political and technical expectations for the COP. What made these letters unusual was the tone, sometimes hitting lyrical notes (“As COP30 moves to the Southern Hemisphere, we look at the sky to find the five stars of the “Southern Cross” as our compass” – Letter 1), the content, very often showcasing progressive politics (“we are entering a perilous era in which the wealthy … insulate themselves behind climate-resilient walls while the poor are left exposed. Such a future must be rejected outright. It is unethical, immoral, and ultimately self-destructive” – Letter 8), and the breadth of topics they covered. The Brazilian presidency clearly intended to show that it was not afraid to take sides and make clear asks: for more equity, more sustainable development and fight against poverty, and more support for developing countries. So much for the “neutral ” COP Presidency (which, in reality, they never are), and this was very welcome.
That said, it is not enough to lay asks and challenges at the feet of negotiators. The COP30 Presidency is now expected to lead on its delivery, and this is what the next two weeks will be about. André Corrêa do Lago and his team will work with negotiators and ministers to deliver a “Belém package” that measures up to their expectations. Thanks to another unusual innovation, President Lula himself detailed all the possible elements of this package in his “Call of Belém for climate” published upon the conclusion of the Leaders’ Summit:
- Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – Lula called for the urgent presentation of all missing NDCs, with the maximum possible ambition.
- Some G20 NDCs (including those of India and Saudi Arabia) are indeed still missing, and one hopes that Brazil will be able to obtain them by the end of COP.
- Means of implementation (financing and accountability) – Lula called for very precise measures, including some that will be decided in other spaces (like the reforms of the international financial system). It will be important to get results at COP on:
- The adoption and implementation of the “Baku-Belem Roadmap for 1.3 T”;
- Increasing the volume of disbursements through the operational entities of the Financial Mechanism, the Adaptation Fund, the Least Developed Countries Fund, and the Special Fund for Climate Change; and significantly increasing contributions to the Fund to Respond to Loss and Damage, which Brazil proposes tripling by 2030 compared to 2022.
- Establishing and strengthening technical assistance platforms and capacity building to support developing countries in implementing climate action, such as “country platforms”, on energy transition, or economy-wide adaptation plans
- Adaptation, resilience and solidarity – the Brazilian presidency has made convincing proposals on an adaptation package that could include:
- Finalising the assessment of progress on National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), evaluating findings, and agreeing on follow-up steps;
- advancing the Baku Adaptation Roadmap (BAR) to accelerate Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) delivery through concrete steps;
- clarifying how to close the adaptation finance gap: Parties will need to agree on a number for a post-2025 goal (Brazil proposes tripling current commitments);
- delivering on the GGA and its operationalisation through the UAE–Belém Work Programme, with concrete, measurable indicators to track enhanced adaptive capacity, strengthened resilience, and reduced vulnerability.
- Accelerating climate action – the “implementation COP” must deliver concrete results. Brazil has long maintained that this task falls under the “climate action” pillar of the COP, not within the negotiation track. This seems indeed like a logical conclusion, but the COP30 presidency could propose to anchor voluntary initiatives delivering concrete results in a transparent manner to some of the negotiations work programs (such as the Just Transition Work Program). Such voluntary initiatives, all listed by Lula, include:
- Expanding financing channels for forests, via sustainable and large-scale mechanisms based on measured results-based payments like the just-agreed Tropical Forever Forests Fund (TFFF);
- Combating all forms of energy poverty, ensuring universal access to reliable, sustainable, modern and affordable energy, as well as clean cooking;
- Implementing the commitment to transition away from fossil fuels in a fair, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade;
- Defining roadmaps to fairly and systematically reverse deforestation, overcome dependence on fossil fuels and mobilise the resources needed for these objectives;
- Harmonising carbon accounting standards.
- Putting People at the centre, against hunger, poverty and inequalities – Lula’s proposals could probably all be endorsed as is by Parties, and they include:
- Aligning climate action with measures to eradicate poverty and hunger, and to combat inequalities;
- Guaranteeing opportunities for all in the transition to a low-carbon economy;
- Recognising the role of indigenous territories and traditional communities and of protection policies as climate mitigation policies.
This “Belém package” does respond to the call for more implementation, more multilateralism, more people-centred action put forward by Brazil and many other leaders – including Barbados, the EU, Chile, China and South Africa. A coalition for “truth and implementation” does exist; it is now up to negotiators, supported by the many very able initiatives, finance, cities, corporate, and civil society leaders, to work with Brazil to deliver this Belém package in two weeks. It is difficult, but doable.
Photo credit: Meeting of Brazilian President Lula and United Nations President Guterres. Palácio do Planalto. 2025.
