With the United States (US) elections happening on 5 November, uncertainty remains not only about the outcome itself but also the timing and clarity of the final election results when they get announced. Last time, it took close to four days until most media outlets had enough certainty about the outcomes in the major swing states to call Joe Biden the winner. It can be expected that Donald Trump will contest the results – both in key swing states and at federal level.
Depending on who wins the White House, much is at stake for European politics of the next five years. Republicans and Democrats might agree on scaling up and investing in domestic industries but that would be the fossil or clean tech industry depending on the election results. They also have diverging views on climate action, defence, trade and multilateralism at large.
Highlights of the policy briefing:
- Irrespective of who wins the US elections, substantial investments and policy reforms are needed for the EU to regain leadership in the cleantech race. The EU can show how the transition to climate neutrality and the Clean Industrial Deal are the best way to secure its competitiveness and prosperity.
- A no-regret in both scenarios is for the EU to define a new geoeconomic stance on the US and China to clarify acceptable levels of risk exposure for energy, technology, supply chain and material import dependencies and how to reach them to show unity among leaders.
- Under a Trump II scenario, the EU can anticipate more tariffs and protectionist measures to be announced, reduce its LNG import dependence through electrification and strengthen international cooperation. Policymakers can remain in close contact with industry leaders of companies that might be most affected to discuss how to counter or respond to US tariffs, as well as potential protectionist measures. The Commission could anticipate tariffs or protectionist measures from the US when designing the Clean Industrial Deal and Competitiveness Fund.
- Under a Harris scenario, continuity of many Biden policies and positions can be expected. Transatlantic relations can then focus on accelerating the global energy transition, through the Just Energy Transition Partnerships or similar platforms that support the decarbonisation of countries in the global South. Bilaterally, the EU can then discuss industrial transition in more detail in the context of the Trade and Technology Council in order to better align on respective impacts of investments and trade measures such as Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms and tariffs (especially the aluminium and steel tariffs) in a trusted space.
Key dates:
- 5 November: US elections
- 7 November: Meeting of the European Political Community in Budapest, Hungary
- 8 November: Informal European Council in Budapest, Hungary
- 11-22 November: 29th UN Climate Summit (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan
- 12-13 November: COP29 world leaders climate action summit in Baku, Azerbaijan
- 18-19 November: G20 leaders’ summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- 17 December: US electoral college meet in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and cast their ballots - one vote each for president and vice president.
- 17 December: Environment Council
- 19-20 December: European Council
- 1 January: Poland takes over rotating EU presidency
- 6 January: US electoral votes are read and counted before a joint session of Congress
- 20 January: US Inauguration Day: The new president and vice president are sworn in and take office.
Strategic Perspectives is a think tank that presents non-partisan views. This paper is an analysis of potential scenarios and their implications for the EU. This paper will focus on potential Harris and Trump II scenarios and repercussions for the EU in terms of trade, geoeconomics, industrial, economic and energy policies, as well as international climate cooperation.
