COP30 in Belém coincides with the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement. In the past 10 years, the European Union’s cooperation with key partners has been instrumental in delivering key outcomes. Highlights include:

• The five-year “pledge-implement-take stock-improve”  ratchet mechanism instituted by the Paris Agreement has already gone through two cycles. If implemented, current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would limit warming to 2.6°C, whereas in 2015, global mean temperature increase estimates by 2100 ranged from 3.1°C to 5.2°C.
• Overall, developed countries have increased their financial and technological support for developing countries to help them cut emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. 
• The central issue of loss and damage was addressed by creating the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage at COP27.
• Pathways to reaching global net-zero emissions by 2050 have been clearly spelt out, notably at COP28 in the energy sector. These include a just transition away from fossil fuels, starting with coal, a tripling of renewable energy, and a doubling of energy efficiency.
• Entire segments of the social and economic tissue, from cities to banks, from regions to industries, have started to decarbonise, led by the renewable energy sector, whose dynamism has surpassed even the most optimistic expectations. For the past five years, solar energy has provided the cheapest electricity in history.

The need for stronger cooperation and support for developing countries

The progress in the past 10 years has been felt very unevenly across and within countries. Climate action still does not equate climate justice, and much remains to be done to fully implement the Paris Agreement and realise its full promise to “strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty” (Art. 2):

• The richest 10% are responsible for 50% of emissions, and the poorest 50% are responsible for 8%. 
• Poorer and most vulnerable populations disproportionately suffer from the impacts of climate change, with no or very few solutions. 
• About 70 developing countries risk a form of debt distress compounded by high cost of capital, while developed countries are either fully forfeiting their financial obligations or lowering them by cutting their Official Development Assistance contribution (ODA). 
• Global emissions are still rising, when they must fall by 45% by 2030 if the world is to have a good chance of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C.

If COP30 is to be the “implementation climate conference” Brazil is planning for, governments will have to deliver concrete proof that they are indeed implementing both their past commitments and their new ones. Among them, China and the European Union, the two remaining main emitters who did not give up on their responsibilities and are ready and willing to deliver on their commitments and, beyond, defend multilateral action, will be closely watched.

The role of the European Union at COP30

There is much that the European Union can deliver before and during COP30: 

EU NDC. All governments are expected to present their latest climate plans (NDCs) well before COP30. The Secretary-General of the United Nations and Brazilian President Lula have indicated that they count on governments to present their NDCs by the UN General Assembly in September at the latest. This is the first priority and a credibility test for the EU: present a climate plan for 2035 in line with its commitment to reach net zero by 2050 and cut 90% of its emissions by 2040 before the summer.

Finance. At COP30, governments are expected to finalise the “Baku to Belem financial roadmap” to clarify how the $1.3 trillion will be sourced from public and private finance. The European Union has so far been the largest provider of climate finance, per its commitments under the Paris Agreement and the UN Climate Change Convention. In the current financial context, it is imperative that the EU (Commission and member states) present, well before COP30, the full and sincere picture of its possible bilateral and multilateral financial commitments for 2025 and beyond. Early clarity and predictability on the quantity and quality of the EU’s financial commitments will greatly contribute to the success of the delivery of the roadmap. The recent history has shown that any element of surprise or secrecy on these commitments would be greatly counter-productive. For example, it will be important for the EU and its member states to provide clarity on how they plan to contribute to Brazil’s flagship initiative, the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF). It will be even more important to present the EU’s financial contribution to adaptation and loss and damage. Finally, the EU should provide a transparent overview of its financial initiatives, like the Global Gateway or the Global Green Bonds Initiative. Any additional update at the EU or national level on the progress of its pledges would provide the necessary leadership and accountability in this regard.

Energy. The decision taken in Dubai to transition away from fossil fuels, triple renewable energy, and double energy efficiency was made by governments with the full knowledge that such a transition, albeit difficult, was necessary and doable as long as it was fair and cooperative. In fact, the “just, equitable, and orderly” energy transition needs to remain the key priority, given that energy emissions represent 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions. With the Global Energy Transition Forum, the EU has created the space that was missing from the global landscape to: 

• allow leaders to exchange views on lessons learned and roadblocks; 
• have ministers deliver on concrete financial and technical solutions with the help of the industry and the financial sector; and
• showcase concrete outcomes, from new country platforms created to accelerate a systemic shift to renewable energy and provide universal access to electricity, to large-scale projects on grids, etc.

In the ramp-up to COP30, it will be important that the EU showcases progress on delivering this commitment, both in the EU itself (upcoming decisions on LNG will be a marker of the EU’s real ambition) and in countries supported by the Global Gateway.

Alliances. To ensure success at COP30, the EU will, as always, rely on its allies and partners. The EU regularly has dialogues with big emitters such as China and India. They must be enhanced, especially in light of this year’s summits, which are also planned with Latin America and the African Union. It will be equally important to engage, without waiting for COP30, in regular formal and informal bilateral dialogues with other key constituencies such as the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), the African Group, the Least Developed Countries (LDC) group and the Vulnerable Countries Forum. With the latter groups, the EU should work on concrete proposals to improve their clean energy access and adaptation measures, for example, through country platforms. Such bilateral dialogues should start in June and be renewed in September before more formal consultations are organised at pre-COP (Brasília, 14-15 October) and COP (Bélem Leaders’ Summit, 6-7 November, COP30 Summit, 10-21 November).

Finally, it will be important for the EU to come prepared to engage on a few issues that will matter a great deal at COP30 and beyond:

• Science. The EU must ensure that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) gets clear guidance and a green light at COP30 to deliver its next Assessment well before the 2028 Global Stocktake.
• Climate action. The mechanism created by the COP21 decision, two Presidency Champions to orchestrate climate action, has contributed to a vibrant groundswell of climate action. This mechanism has grown in size with the creation of permanent teams within and outside the UNFCCC, and in reach with the launch of work programmes not necessarily aligned with the COP Presidencies’ own. More importantly, all sectors of the economy and society have empowered themselves and can now deliver results independently. It is time for governments to take stock of the past ten years, decide whether and how these initiatives should account for their work and how they can better directly work in countries most in need of support.
• Evolution of COPs. The connection between COPs and other international economic and financial institutions to deliver progress on implementation, including through a proposed Climate Council, is high on Brazil’s agenda. Brazil has already asked the “Circle of Former COP Presidents,” chaired by  COP21 president Laurent Fabius, to propose some options for the next steps.