10. 03. 2026
AUTHOR: Linda Kalcher, Anne-Sophie Cerisola, Norbert Gorißen
The European Union (EU) is operating in a radically new geopolitical environment, with developments in recent weeks further intensifying this shift. Armed conflicts are spreading, trade tensions have intensified, technology shifts are accelerating, global instability is reshaping alliances, and political majorities across several Member States are fragile. In this context, calls for deregulation in order to protect competitiveness and economic security have moved to the centre of the European debate. This change in political priorities has not yet been fully integrated into its climate diplomacy.
This new geopolitical reality and the beginning of a new cycle leading to the Paris Agreement’s second Global Stocktake require a climate diplomacy reset. European environment ministers will meet on 17 March for the Environment Council, where they will discuss the next steps in EU international climate engagement over lunch. The EU and its Member States have an opportunity to develop a multi-year strategy that sets out priorities, reflects legitimate cooperation interests and thus shapes engagement and finance strategies. The war in the Middle East and the resulting volatility of energy markets show, once again, that dependency on fossil fuels is a threat. Energy security, electrification, green reindustrialisation and homegrown clean technology leadership now shape the political language – both in Europe and globally.
Why the EU’s model has broader appeal
The EU is one of the world’s largest and richest markets. Access to that market carries weight, as do regulatory predictability, investment stability, and democratic governance.
Recent agreements reflect this leverage. The Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Mercosur, negotiations with India and the Clean Trade and Investment Partnership (CTIP) with South Africa link economic cooperation to the goals of the Paris Agreement. These provisions signal that market access and climate commitments move hand in hand. Opportunities for more “deals” like this are on the table, including with Australia, the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, the UAE, and five countries in Eastern and Southern Africa.
This approach serves mutual interests. The EU benefits from diversified supply chains, reduced dependence on single suppliers, and stronger energy security. Partner countries benefit from access to a large and predictable market, investment flows, and support for industrial development.
The Union can project a socio-economic model that combines the rules of the law, a fossil-free industrial base, a strong domestic market, and social protection. In a global context where countries seek growth, employment and resilience, this model has appeal.
Preparation for COP33 to COP35 starts now
The next three years are decisive. The next two COPs in Turkiye and Ethiopia have a light negotiation agenda, and preparations for the second global stocktake will culminate at COP33. This opens a wide space for COP31 and COP32 to work on and showcase the delivery of concrete outcomes in climate-proofing infrastructure, universal access to energy, the transition away from fossil fuels, and the lowering of capital costs for less developed economies. Timely preparations can make a big difference.
The EU (both its institutions and the member states) now has the plans (NDC, Climate Law, Global Vision, Industrial Accelerator Act, etc.), assets (a global diplomatic network, a clean tech industry, etc..) and tools (Global Gateway, FTAs, CTIPs, bilateral cooperation, public financial institutions, etc..) to reset its climate diplomacy on the basis of a clear, three-year strategy that:
- Defines priorities, and thus partners and coalitions accordingly: for example, with the BASIC group, whose fundamental economic (electrification of the economy; climate-proofing infrastructures) and some political (defence of multilateralism) interests align with the EU; with small island states and Least Developed Countries on fossil-free energy systems, resilience and disaster preparedness;
- Uses trade and investment tools more strategically to boost clean tech manufacturing in partner countries, given the global demand increase;
- Advances the just, equitable and orderly energy transition and global energy access through concrete projects (support of country platforms of national roadmaps to transition away from fossil fuels) and multi-stakeholder initiatives (Global Energy Transition Forum, BOGA, PPCA, etc.);
- Scales up private investments on the transition and in resilience, giving the scarce public climate finance a clearer, catalytic and more visible focus;
- Offers concrete adaptation programs for lower-income and the most vulnerable countries to climate change;
- Strengthens sectoral cooperation: in the areas of energy, land-use, green industrialisation, electrification or resilience;
- Preserves the COP as the global “big tent” space for cooperation, both in negotiations and in the Action Agenda.
A climate diplomacy reset requires clarity about priorities, engagement plans and instruments to achieve them. The EU can become the model of aligning economic security with global decarbonisation. Partner countries with shared interests can benefit from predictable access, finance, and technology. With a structured strategy, the EU can strengthen its global standing while supporting a net-zero pathway worldwide.
Photo credit: European Union. 2025
